I am the LAST person to lose HOPE but i am the FIRST person to face reality and the REALITY is telling me that KASB Securities issue may linger on. If it does not, i will be the first person to be cheering with joy. There is no stone i have left unturned to gather CONCRETE INFORMATION about this matter and OPINIONS from the industry insiders. There is no need to panic even if it does not come online because you will be GETTING YOUR PAYMENTS starting tomorrow, I have been told. Secondly, the ball has been left in the court of KASB Securities to show Their Net Capital of around Rs 2 Billion before the KATS Terminal could be turned back on. Rs 600 Million of KASB Securities is stuck at KASB Bank.
I am a bit confused as to how Rs 2 billion be raised/Borrowed?/Injected within two days. Secondly, you can transfer your shares to another house if you do not have Margin. CDC is your custodian. But if you have margin, than you will have to find a house that will pay your margin and have your securities released and then create a new margin account at the firm where you have transferred your account to. The NEW House you go to will also look at what your holdings are and if you dont have "A" Grade stocks on margin, i do not think that they will accept the transfer. And thats very fair. Otherwise you will have to wait till a final verdict of settlement procedure is announced by the SECP.
Either way, The selling pressure being created in the market is LARGELY ARTIFICIAL and PERCEPTIONAL because KASB is not being forced to liquidate client securities, so where is the selling pressure ? And when people can transfer their shares, why would they sell it ? Thats all i can say for now but i still hold some ray of hope that it is resolved....But protect your interest first and transfer if you want.
Post by Mir Mohammad Alikhan - Co-Chairman at AMZ MAK Capital Limited.
Posted on his Facebook Wall.
Thursday
KSE-100 tumbles by 517 pts, down 1.63% to close at 31239 pts
KARACHI: The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) lost massive 517.25 points or -1.63 percent to reach 31239.04 points and volume of 180,057,570 shares as bears routed out bulls from the market on Thursday.
Till midday, the benchmark KSE-100 index plummet 535.12 points or 1.63 percent to came down to 31221.17 points.
The market failed to start off on a positive note and recoup the overnight losses that were triggered by a profiting taking spree, forcing the benchmark to red zone.
As a whole 13.46 per cent of companies witnessed increase in their shares while 46.47 per cent lost their share value and 1.31 per cent companies remained stable.
High and Low were 31760.80 and 31026.30 respectively. Total volume traded in the market was 180,057,570 shares.
Analysts say foreign fund managers showed exceptional interest in the market and it is expected that the bullish trend may retained at the bourse in the coming days.
The appreciation in the value of rupee against dollar also boosted confidence of the investors in first two days of market; however it lost 250 points on Wednesday unexpectedly.
Following the negative sentiments concerned the investors due to the uncertainties and they opted for playing safe and take their cash off the table.
The investor concerns were exacerbated by the developments on the political front with major political parties feared to be treading on a collision course.
Till midday, the benchmark KSE-100 index plummet 535.12 points or 1.63 percent to came down to 31221.17 points.
The market failed to start off on a positive note and recoup the overnight losses that were triggered by a profiting taking spree, forcing the benchmark to red zone.
As a whole 13.46 per cent of companies witnessed increase in their shares while 46.47 per cent lost their share value and 1.31 per cent companies remained stable.
High and Low were 31760.80 and 31026.30 respectively. Total volume traded in the market was 180,057,570 shares.
Analysts say foreign fund managers showed exceptional interest in the market and it is expected that the bullish trend may retained at the bourse in the coming days.
The appreciation in the value of rupee against dollar also boosted confidence of the investors in first two days of market; however it lost 250 points on Wednesday unexpectedly.
Following the negative sentiments concerned the investors due to the uncertainties and they opted for playing safe and take their cash off the table.
The investor concerns were exacerbated by the developments on the political front with major political parties feared to be treading on a collision course.
Wednesday
Karachi stocks plunge 250.11pts, down 0.78% to close at 31756.29pts on profit-taking
KARACHI: The Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) lost 250.11 points or -0.78% due to profit-taking to close 31756.29 points and volume of 187,615,200 shares on Wednesday.
Earlier, trading in the market started on a positive note and the index kept on ticking, adding 219 points to the overnight tally.
The stocks opened at overnight closing of 32,006.40 points and continued upward march, showing signs of confidence.
However, In its journey to scaling new heights of its history, the buoyant Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark 100-index tumbled a little till midday and lost most of early gains to come down to 32019.90 points after reaching 32225 points.
As a whole 15.93 per cent of companies witnessed increase in their shares while 43.51 per cent lost their share value and 2.46 per cent companies remained stable. High and Low were 32225.17 and 31697.78 respectively. Total volume traded in the market was 187,615,200 shares.
Engro Corporation (minus 1.16 percent) took a breather while cement plays namely Pioneer Cement (minus 4.3 percent), D G Khan Cement (minus 1.5 percent) and Cherat Cement (minus 3.7 percent) also witnessed profit booking. Batla expected market to remain volatile and resist near 32,000 with financials namely National Bank of Pakistan, MCB Bank and Bank Alfalah Limited likely generating interest while broader continues to track flows.
Jah Sid Company was the volume leader in the market with 29.84 million shares as it closed at Rs 15.29 followed by Engro Fertiliser with trading of 15.17 million shares and closed at Rs 66.04. Maple Leaf Cement traded 14.13 million shares and closed at Rs 34.60.
Analysts say foreign fund managers showed exceptional interest in the market and it is expected that the bullish trend may retained at the bourse in the coming days. Selling in later half of the session pulled the index in red with Pakistan Petroleum (minus 2.2 percent), recording its recent low keeping other oil names under pressure.
The appreciation in the value of rupee against dollar also boosted confidence of the investors in first two days of market; however it lost 250 points on Wednesday unexpectedly.
Earlier, trading in the market started on a positive note and the index kept on ticking, adding 219 points to the overnight tally.
The stocks opened at overnight closing of 32,006.40 points and continued upward march, showing signs of confidence.
However, In its journey to scaling new heights of its history, the buoyant Karachi Stock Exchange benchmark 100-index tumbled a little till midday and lost most of early gains to come down to 32019.90 points after reaching 32225 points.
As a whole 15.93 per cent of companies witnessed increase in their shares while 43.51 per cent lost their share value and 2.46 per cent companies remained stable. High and Low were 32225.17 and 31697.78 respectively. Total volume traded in the market was 187,615,200 shares.
Engro Corporation (minus 1.16 percent) took a breather while cement plays namely Pioneer Cement (minus 4.3 percent), D G Khan Cement (minus 1.5 percent) and Cherat Cement (minus 3.7 percent) also witnessed profit booking. Batla expected market to remain volatile and resist near 32,000 with financials namely National Bank of Pakistan, MCB Bank and Bank Alfalah Limited likely generating interest while broader continues to track flows.
Jah Sid Company was the volume leader in the market with 29.84 million shares as it closed at Rs 15.29 followed by Engro Fertiliser with trading of 15.17 million shares and closed at Rs 66.04. Maple Leaf Cement traded 14.13 million shares and closed at Rs 34.60.
Analysts say foreign fund managers showed exceptional interest in the market and it is expected that the bullish trend may retained at the bourse in the coming days. Selling in later half of the session pulled the index in red with Pakistan Petroleum (minus 2.2 percent), recording its recent low keeping other oil names under pressure.
The appreciation in the value of rupee against dollar also boosted confidence of the investors in first two days of market; however it lost 250 points on Wednesday unexpectedly.
PTCL under limelight – Global Research
PTCL under limelight – Global Research
By: Sana Abdullah,Global Securities Pakistan Ltd
ICH rates likely to go down to USD 0.058/min
Media reports suggest that the Ministry of Information Technology has drafted a working paper, where they are contemplating to either reduce the ICH Rates down to USD 0.058/min or to disband the International Clearing House (ICH) altogether. LDI incoming minutes have halved after the establishment of ICH, to ~500mn minutes/ month from 1.2bn minutes/ month in the Pre-ICH era. Although a lot of the business has suffered due to grey telephony, we believe the segment is likely to witness decline on the back of penetration of broadband connections and the popularity of VOIP. The Competition Commission of Pakistan has already ruled against ICH, however, no action has been taken to date by the GoP, to dissolve the arrangement.
PTC has been a major beneficiary of the ICH
PTCL’s consolidated PAT increased by 97% YoY in CY13 to PKR 15.75bn (EPS: PKR 3.09), on the back of turnaround in profitability due to the ICH. Revenues of the company depicted an increase of 11% YoY. The LDI business, which constituted 9% of PTC’s standalone revenues in the pre-ICH era, increased to 24% in CY13. Gross margins also witnessed an increase to 37% in CY13, compared to 34% in CY12. Decline in the ICH call termination rates from USD 0.088/min to USD 0.058/min will be negative for PTC’s revenues and profitability. As per crude estimates, if incoming minutes do not increase after the reduction in call termination rates, earnings of the company are likely to be negatively impacted by PKR 0.50/sh on an annualized basis.
3mo ending
|
%
|
3mo ending
|
%
|
12mo ending
|
%
| ||||
PKR mn
|
Sep13
|
Dec13
|
D
|
Dec12
|
Dec13
|
D
|
Dec12
|
Dec13
|
D
|
| Revenues |
34,913
|
30,749
|
(12)
|
33,514
|
30,749
|
(8)
|
118,415
|
131,224
|
11
|
| COGS |
23,069
|
18,573
|
(19)
|
18,829
|
18,573
|
(1)
|
74,600
|
83,067
|
11
|
| Gross Profit |
11,844
|
12,176
|
3
|
14,686
|
12,176
|
(17)
|
43,815
|
48,158
|
10
|
| SG&A Exp. |
7,181
|
6,389
|
(11)
|
6,319
|
6,389
|
1
|
24,409
|
26,261
|
8
|
| Other Income |
944
|
1,160
|
23
|
850
|
1,160
|
37
|
5,363
|
4,538
|
(15)
|
| Finance Cost |
381
|
479
|
26
|
991
|
479
|
(52)
|
3,813
|
2,642
|
(31)
|
| PBT |
5,225
|
6,469
|
24
|
9,756
|
6,469
|
(34)
|
11,489
|
23,794
|
107
|
| PAT |
3,414
|
4,474
|
31
|
9,446
|
4,474
|
(53)
|
7,997
|
15,753
|
97
|
| EPS (PKR) |
0.67
|
0.88
|
1.85
|
0.88
|
-
|
1.57
|
3.09
|
-
| |
| DPS (PKR) |
-
|
1.00
|
-
|
1.00
|
-
|
2.00
| |||
| Source: Company Accounts | |||||||||
Upcoming 3G license auction
PTC is likely to go for the 3G license auction for its subsidiary PTML (Ufone). The license’s base price is set at USD 295mn (PKR 28.9bn), and the auction is scheduled for the end of this month. The company held cash and cash equivalents of PKR 28.5bn, as of Dec13. Moreover, PTC repaid PKR 18.5bn worth of its long term debt on Ufone’s books in 2H CY13, making room to raise debt for new projects. 3G is likely to be revenue accretive for the company; however we anticipate cannibalization of the LDI segment post launch of faster internet on cellphones.
Outlook
Due to the recent share price run up in PTC, we downgrade our stance on the company from BUY to NEUTRAL. We have also tweaked the company’s earnings for the change in PKR/USD estimates for 2Q CY13. Change in the base rate for PKR/USD parity will significantly impact the earnings of the LDI segment in CY14 and beyond. Our Target Price for CY14 stands at PKR 34/sh. The stock offers an upside of 5% from current levels, and is trading at a forward PE of 11.9x.
CY11
|
CY12
|
CY13E
|
CY14E
|
CY15E
| |
| EPS (PKR) |
1.41
|
1.57
|
3.09
|
2.70
|
3.02
|
| DPS (PKR) |
1.65
|
0.0
|
2.0
|
2.00
|
2.75
|
| P/E |
22.9
|
20.6
|
10.4
|
11.9
|
10.7
|
| P/B |
0.81
|
0.74
|
0.67
|
0.66
|
0.65
|
| Div. Yield (%) |
5.11
|
-
|
6.20
|
6.20
|
8.53
|
| Earnings Growth (%) |
(34.2)
|
11.3
|
97.0
|
(12.4)
|
11.6
|
| ROE |
6.4
|
6.9
|
12.8
|
10.8
|
11.8
|
Tuesday
HASCOL offers General Public IPO on 8th and 9th April 2014
HASCOL is going to offer 6.25 million shares to the General Public of Pakistan through IPO. The strike price per share is Rs. 56.50. HASCOL is involved in petroleum business and have more than 200 outlets in Pakistan.
HASCOL
General Public Portion of the issue comprises of 6,250,000 ordinary shares (25% of the issue) at an issue price of pkr 56.50/- per share (inclusive of a premium of pkr 46.50/- per share).The issue price is actually the strike price determined through the book building Bidding period dates: from march 4, 2014 to march 5, 2014 (both days inclusive) from 9:00 a.m. To 5:00 p.m.
According to SCS Trade:
While comparing HPL with industry and other peers, we see that at this price (Rs 56.5/sh) HPL seems little expensive given premium price. Based on diluted EPS HPL yields expected PE of 11.3x which is much higher than the other peers and double of industry average expected PE of 5.8x. Likewise In term of PBV comparison HPL spells out higher PBV of 3.5x much higher than the industry average PBV of 1.5x.
It is our opinion that the company is in good business term and have strong potential to achieve much in the upcoming years. It is fact that price per share is much higher but the confidence of investors have shown that the company will yield much better results than the peers.
KAPCO earning dips on higher maintenance cost – WE Research
KAPCO earning dips on higher maintenance cost – WE Research
By: WE Financial Services Limited(+92-21) 455-2846
In our today’s morning briefing we would discuss the performance of Kot Addu Power Company Limited (KAPCO) and would give recommendation on the scrip.
1HFY14: PAT declines 23% YoY
Owing to increase in repair & maintenance cost and decline in interest income, the cumulative earning of KAPCO declined by 23% YoY in 1HFY14 to Rs 2,844 million (EPS: Rs 3.23) as compared to a profit after taxation (PAT) of Rs 3,683 million (EPS: Rs 4.18) in 1HFY13. The QoQ decline was more significant as the company earned a PAT of Rs 1,119 million (EPS: Rs 1.27) in 2QFY14 which is 35% less from a PAT of Rs 1,726 million (EPS: Rs1.96) in 1QFY14. The surge in repair & maintenance cost and higher taxation were the key factors that affected the earnings during the period. The repair & cost was higher due to major overhaul of steam & gas turbines. The corporate results were accompanied with an interim cash dividend of Rs 2.75/share.
Shell Pakistan Limited big earnings turnaround underway – FS Research
Shell Pakistan Limited big earnings turnaround underway – FS Research
By: Muhammad Fawad Khan and Syed Ali HassanFoundation Securities (Pvt) Limited
Initiating with an Outperform rating and TP of PKR349.67/sh
We initiate coverage on Shell Pakistan Limited, Pakistan’s 2nd largest oil marketing company having market share of ~11%, with an Outperform rating and TP of PKR349.67. We eye a strong earnings turnaround over the next three years and believe 55% stock price run-up in one-mth is yet to fully reflect the new fundamentals which warrant much higher valuation.
Key reasons for Outperform rating
#1-3x jump in bottom-line
We project 3-year earnings CAGR of 55% under conservative set of assumptions driven by four key drivers. We contend earnings turnaround is largely sustainable. We base our thesis on;
1-Strong uptick in volumes: Shell’s focus on relatively higher margin transportation fuels (HSD, MS, JP) have started to bear fruits as double digit volume growth of 13% in CY13 overshot industry growth of 10%.Medium-term outlook on these products is favorable and should help Shell to undergo 8% volume growth over three years.
Pakistan Cement sequential Uptick in Mar’14 Dispatches – AKD Research
By: Bilal Alvi,UAN: 111-253-111AKD Securities Limited
According to news reports cement dispatches for 9MFY14 clocked in at 24.8mn tons up only 1%YoY. In this regard, cement dispatches fell in comparison to Mar’13 where local dispatches came off by 4%YoY to 2.5mn tons while exports clocked in lower at 725k tons, down by 6%YoY. The decline in domestic cement dispatches was largely due to heavier rainfall during Mar’14. While cement dispatches are expected to improve going forward, sector dynamics will remain dependent on the outcome of the expansion by DGKC and LPCL’s acquisition. We highlight DGKC as a potential outperformer where the stock offers an upside of 15.6% to our Jun’14 TP of PkR106.9/share.
Mar’14 Dispatches: Total cement dispatches during 9MFY14 clocked in at 24.8mn tons up only 1%YoY. Domestic dispatches for the period registered a growth of 2%YoY to 18.8mn tons. In this regard, Mar’14 total dispatches increased by a sharp 17% sequentially to 3.2mn tons. However, cement dispatches fell in comparison to Mar’13 where local dispatches came off by 4%YoY to 2.5mn tons while exports clocked in lower at 725k tons, down by 6%YoY. The decline in domestic cement dispatches was largely due to heavier rainfall during Mar’14. As a result total cement dispatches posted a decline 4%YoY during Mar’14.
Outlook: Going forward, cement dispatches are likely to improve as the weather improves and Government goes ahead with infrastructure development plans including construction of the Metro Bus Service in Rawalpindi/Islamabad. Sharp appreciation of the PkR vs. the US$ cement manufacturers with a relatively lower share of exports are likely to benefit more from the falling coal import cost where manufacturers with low share of exports include DCL and PIOC. We expect the declining costs to result in stable cement prices. That said, sector dynamics going forward are likely to be dictated by the acquisition of LPCL and expansion by DGKC. Where we believe expansion by DGKC and acquisition of LPCL by LUCK may possibly leave sector dynamics unchanged.
Investment Perspective: 3QFY14 results are expected to be significantly better on a sequential basis where growth is expected to be led by a 4%QoQ increase in dispatches and the impact of higher prices and lower coal prices coming into play. In this regard, Richard bay coal came off by 5%QoQ during 3QFY14. In this regard, DGKC currently trading at an FY14 and FY15 P/E of 7.1x and 6.1x respectively offers an upside of 15.6% to our Jun’14 TP of PkR106.9/share..
Monday
Fauji Cement Company Limited Result Preview 3QFY14 – InvestCap Research
By: Abdul Azeem,+92-21-35205520-22 (Ext 8633)Invest capital Markets Limited
Fauji Cement Company Limited (FCCL) is scheduled to announce its financial result for 3QFY14 on 23rd Apr-14. In today’s Value Seeker, we present result preview for 3QFY14, along with outlook and recommendation on the scrip.
Company to post PAT of Rs716mn (EPS Rs0.52) in 3QFY14
FCCL is expected to witness 11%YoY increase in PAT to Rs716mn (EPS Rs0.52) in 3QFY14 as compared to Rs647mn (EPS Rs0.47) during corresponding period last year. Profitability is likely to scale up on the back of i) 22%YoY increase in retention prices resulting net sales to grow by 5.0% to Rs4,258mn ii) a gigantic 33%YoY decline in coal prices to USD76/ton and iii) repayment of loans to reduce financial charges by 7%YoY to 313mn. However, decline in total dispatches by 15%YoY is expected to restrict the profitability of the company.
Similarly, on 9MFY14 basis, the company’s performance is expected to remain healthy. The bottom-line of the company is estimated to grow by a colossal 25%YoY to 1,967mn (EPS Rs1.43) during 9MFY14 as compared to Rs1,569mn (EPS Rs1.14). The rise in profitability is attributed to increase in retention price by 11.5%YoY and decline in financial charges by 15%YoY during the said period.
Outlook and recommendation
Going forward, we believe that along with the private construction demand, the upcoming infrastructure plan of the government would be the major driver of cement demand. The government is planning to build new dams to enhance water storage and to improve electricity generation capacity to overcome current shortage of the same. Moreover, undergoing small houses schemes would also be another positive factor for cement demand going forward. At current levels, we have ‘Hold’ call on the company with Jun14 Target price of Rs18/sh.
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